BRIEFINGS ARE BACK. NOVEMBER 15, 2023

For decades we’ve gathered as a homebuilding community to network, connect and hear the latest on the market from local experts on the market. Location Strategy is proud to restart this tradition with our first forecast briefing presentation on November 15, 2023, from 7:30–10:00 AM. Click here for full details and to reserve your seat.

We have a panel of distinguished builders, developers, and lenders covering affordability across the pricing spectrum and the outlook for project and home lending in 2024. Panelists include:

• Jennifer Keller, Hamilton Thomas Homes

• Becky Ullman, Lennar/Friendswood Development

• Matthew Brodd, AmCap Home Loans

• Lawrence Dean, Veritex Community Bank, moderator

The Panel will be followed by the 2024 economic forecast to be given by Scott Davis.

Don’t delay; limited seating is available. Click here to reserve your seat.

Have you thought about renewing that office lease early? Prices have fallen for the office sector, and vacancy rates have increased more for the office sector, with office vacancies above 25-year highs. If you don’t have a broker, let us know - we can refer you to someone who can help.

LOCATION STRATEGY CHARTBOOK

The Population Survey showed only a modest gain in jobs, diverging from the Establishment Survey we covered last week.

This is why the BLS’s challenges with giving straight data is such a problem: given the yield curve inversion, jobless claims should be rising now if a recession is coming.

WARN notices suggest that jobless claims will jump this month. But Business and Professional Services Openings were up 35% last month.

Alternative measures of core inflation showed rapid price gains in September.

The average interest rate on government debt is projected to stay below nominal GDP growth until about 2038.

“Near-term inflation expectations have risen and could contribute, along with tight labor markets, to core inflation pressures persisting and requiring higher policy rates than expected,” the IMF finds.

All [FOMC] participants agreed that policy should remain restrictive for some time until the Committee is confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward its objective.

Business applications are running well above pre-COVID levels. NB: This is really not a bullish sign.

Covid lockdowns? Meh. Mortgage lockdowns? Real. Percentage of outstanding 30-year conventional mortgages with at least a 50bp incentive to refinance

Annual home ownership cost as a percent of median income:

Rate lock count:

Multifamily housing supply is now outstripping demand, raising vacancy rates

Components of COVID-era household wealth gains in the US:

"Americans age 65 and up accounted for 22% of spending last year, the highest share since records began in 1972 and up from 15% in 2010."

Only 24% of student borrowers surveyed say they can make their full monthly payment without reducing spending.

Have a high school senior at home? Median student loan debt by major