BRIEFINGS ARE BACK. NOVEMBER 15 2023

Location Strategy is proud to announce its first forecast briefing presentation November 15, 2023 from 7:30-10:00 AM. Click here for full details and to reserve your seat.

We have a panel of distinguished builders, developers and lenders covering affordability across the pricing spectrum and the outlook for project and home lending in 2024. Panelists include:

• Jennifer Keller, HamiltonThomas Homes

• Becky Ullman, Lennar/Friendswood Development

• Matthew Brodd, AmCap Home Loans

• Lawrence Dean, Veritex community Bank, moderator

The Panel will be followed by the 2024 economic forecast given by Scott Davis.

Don’t delay - limited seating is available. Click here to reserve your seat.

LOCATION STRATEGY CHARTBOOK

Another week, another massive revision by the BLS to the jobs numbers. Every single month this year has been revised downward, some twice. The initial versus the final numbers are shown below.

The reported number was obviously proclaimed positively because it exceeded expectations; but of the 179,000 jobs added in the report, 159,000 - 90 percent - came from “seasonal adjustment. That is, they were a statistical artifact. I wouldn’t get too upset about it though, because they’re just going to revise them downward next month.

One last note on the jobs report: there was a 670K drop in full-time workers in the past months, offset by a 1,004K jump in part-time workers. That does not sound like an economic miracle worth bragging about.

Meanwhile, new jobless claims show growing weakness in the labor market.

Some economists see a pullback in consumption later this year. Here is one catalyst: Interest on federal student loans will resume this Friday, with the initial payments scheduled for October. The amount of loans in forbearance is now above $1 trillion.

Half of those with incomes under $50,000 say they won’t be able to pay on their student loans. Not surprising, but more shocking is that 25% of those making more than $100,000 also expect to not to be able to pay.

Ending the student loan moratorium is expected to take a sizable bite out of consumer spending in the fourth quarter.

Millennials are particularly exposed.

Some Millennials are already struggling with credit card debt, as delinquencies hit the highest level since 2012.

The gap between house prices and wages continues to widen.

In real terms, disposable income fell by 0.2% (first decline in 13 months) while spending increased by 0.6%.

In the four weeks ending August 27, "the median home sale price was $379,975, up 4.8% from a year earlier. That’s the biggest increase since October."

Here are some charts on US federal debt.
 
The Congressional Budget Office projects federal debt as a percent of GDP to nearly double by 2053 if current tax and spending laws remain unchanged.

Interest expense is expected to accelerate.

10-year Treasury on course for 3rd consecutive loss (-0.3% in ‘23, -17.0% in ’22, -3.9% in ’21)...has never occurred in 250-year history of US republic.