BRIEFINGS ARE BACK. NOVEMBER 15 2023

Location Strategy is proud to announce its first forecast briefing presentation November 15, 2023 from 7:30-10:00 AM. Click here for full details and to reserve your seat.

We have a panel of distinguished builders, developers and lenders covering affordability across the pricing spectrum and the outlook for project and home lending in 2024. Panelists include:

• Jennifer Keller, HamiltonThomas Homes

• Becky Ullman, Lennar/Friendswood Development

• Matthew Brodd, AmCap Home Loans

• Lawrence Dean, Veritex community Bank, moderator

The Panel will be followed by the 2024 economic forecast given by Scott Davis.

Don’t delay - limited seating is available. Click here to reserve your seat.

Location Strategy Chartbook

This is the kind of chart that I normally would put last, but this is an incredibly important development for the Texas and Houston economies and I wanted to make sure you saw it. US imports from Mexico are now above that of China.

Hike cycle vs. recession "If the lags between rate hikes and a recession match previous cycles, then we are coming into the range where a recession is most likely."

CPI vs. 2%. "Here’s a look at how tough it’s going to be to get back to the Fed’s 2% target rate for inflation anytime soon."

I’m not sure if this significant yet, but PMI showed a sudden acceleration in cost inflation in August.

The jobs report reinforces the view that the Fed is likely done with rate hikes.

Government debt. "One source of upward pressure on US rates is the $7.6 trillion in US government bonds that will mature over the coming 12 months."

"Relative to prior years, we expect that income growth in 2024 will be slightly stronger for lower-income households and slightly weaker for higher-income households than it was in 2023, and much stronger for all households than in 2022."

Purchase rate locks running 39% below pre-pandemic levels

Payments on a new mortgage as a percentage of income reached ~27%, up from 15% in 2019, according to Moody’s.

Homebuilders’ top markets are concentrated in regions with strong population growth.

The resumption of student loan payments are another significant headwind.

Will the resumption of student loan payments delay household formation?

Rents are also down on a year-over-year basis.

Construction of new apartments is near record highs, and there is more in the pipeline - futher rent declines ahead.