Location Strategy Top 10 Chartbook

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Economists continue to boost their forecasts for US core inflation.

The slowdown in job openings has been concentrated in rate-sensitive sectors.

When will we see the first negative payroll print? Here is a forecast from Morgan Stanley.

Homeowners have secured exceptionally low mortgage rates and remain largely unaffected by the recent surge in rates.

New home sales surged in May (up almost 26% vs. 2022).

Absolute inventories hit a multi-year low (first panel below). The second panel shows the months of supply, which remain above last year’s levels due to sluggish sales.

New listings of homes for sale fell 26.5% year over year, the biggest decline since May 2020.

The gap between home prices and wages continues to widen.

April FHFA⁩ House Price Index +0.7% m/m vs. +0.5% est. & +0.5% prior (rev down from +0.6%) … 4th month of consecutive gains

The median home sale price was $416,300, which was an increase from last month but only after huge downward revisions for the past 4 months.

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Nomura expects a slow downward drift in rent inflation.

An update to our Alt-CPI metrics using the latest real-time housing data. Case Shiller ticked higher by 3m in a row but our real-time shelter inflation is still +1% vs 8% in BLS. Alt Headline Inflation to 1.5% last 12m. Alt-Core inflation 2.2% last 12m

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