Location Strategy Top 10 Chartbook 01062024

Welcome 2024! The New Year brings many things: February 29, Summer Olympics in Paris, and a Presidential Election Year. Expect lots of spinning of the data you seen. We’ll do our best to keep the story straight.

Visit Our New Office: Connect with Us in Person!

We extend an open invitation for you to visit our new office at 701 North Post Oak Ste 315, Houston, TX 77024

Drop by anytime – we would love to show you around and discuss how we can continue to support your endeavors in the coming months

Location Strategy Chartbook

November Jobs Revised Downward

10 of the 11 months reported in 2023 were later revised downward. Location Strategy is not in the recession camp, but we do expect slower growt in Q1 and Q2. These downward revisions are consistent with that story.

Household Survey Shows 683K Job Decline

We’ve covered this before, but the jobs report consists of two surveys: one of Households and one of Establishments. The two surveys are instruments to measure different aspects of the employment market. So when you see we added 216K jobs, that comes from the Establishment survey. What doesn’t get published is that the Household survey showed a drop of 683,000 jobs - again a sign of a slowing economy.

Full Time Down, Part Time Up, Multiple Jobholders Up

In December, the number of well-paid, full-time workers collapsed by a near record 1.5 million, offset by a 762K surge in part-time workers. As for the balance, it was the 222K people who discovered last month that they need to work at least one more job.

Job Openings Decline, Aligning with Fed's Strategy

Recent data shows a decline in job openings, supporting the Federal Reserve's objective of managing slower demand. Explore the contributing factors and implications for the labor market.

The infographic below illustrates the changes in job openings over the past 12 months, providing a visual narrative of the evolving employment landscape.

Fiscal Impact: Budget Deficit Dynamics and the Dollar's Response

Paradigm Capital suggests that a wider budget deficit could exert pressure on the dollar, a phenomenon typically observed during the fourth year of the presidential cycle. Understand the potential implications for the currency market.

Working-Age Population Growth: A Slower Pace Ahead

Recent analyses indicate that the working-age population is expected to undergo a significant shift in its growth trajectory over the next decade. While population dynamics are inherently complex and influenced by various factors, current projections suggest a slowing down of growth within the working-age demographic.

Less Than 2% of Mortgaged Homes Have Negative Equity.

Even with a slowdown, single family markets shouldn’t experience much turmoil - about 1.8% of mortgaged homes have negative equity right now.

Housing Sector Update: Single-Family Construction Surges, Home Prices Rise

The chart below shows the surge in single-family construction spending, outpacing multifamily housing projects. Additionally, home prices continued to climb in October, rising almost five percent relative to 2022.

Housing Challenges: Home Prices vs. Wages, Sales Falling Through

The gap between home prices and wages is widening, contributing to challenges in the housing market. Learn about the increasing number of home sales falling through and the shift in homebuyers' preferences.

The chart below shows the continued basic problem with housing in the US: for the last 10 years growth in home prices has outpaced growth in wages.

The surge in return to office is slowing down out of market relocations.

New Home Inventories: Surge in Supply Measured in Months

Measured in months of supply, new home inventories have experienced a notable surge. Explore the composition of new inventories and their potential impact on the housing market.

Under construction inventories down, backlog starts to grow.

Global Shipping Checkpoints: Navigating Supply Chain Dynamics