Location Strategy Chartbook 090724

The US Money Supply increased 1.3% over the last year, the biggest YoY increase since October 2022. But still well below the historical average increase (+6.9%). Expect the US inflation rate (CPI) to continue to trend lower in the near term.

Job growth slowed sharply in July, with the unemployment rate rising to its highest level since 2021. At the same time, the share of people holding more than one job ticked up to 5.3% in July from 5.2% in June.

That is a significant increase from a pandemic low of 4% in April 2020, according to U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The figure averaged 4.94% from 2010 through 2019.

Developers Bet on Suburban Office Demand With New Tower in Dallas Area

Pillar Commercial teams up with Hall Capital to build a nine-story, 225,000-square-foot office building in Allen, TX- One Bethany North in the Watters Creek district of Allen, Texas

They are working with the Allen Economic Development Corp., a government entity that owns the site, to structure a competitive incentive package to begin construction on what is expected to be a $100M project.

Experiential retailers continue to capture the largest leases, a trend that has held since Americans emerged from the pandemic lockdown and began prioritizing experiences over physical goods.

In Denver, roughly 750,000 square feet was leased in the second quarter, in a market that has maintained a sub 5% availability rate since late 2022, and current availability is roughly 4.6% of inventory as of August, a decade low. Some market brokers have noted these are the tightest conditions they have seen in their careers.

In total, around 1.2 million U.S. home sales this year have been done off-market, according an analysis by BatchService That includes 175,363 in Texas, 123,637 in Florida, and 62,923 in Georgia.

Home sellers in the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern California, have the most power, while home buyers in Florida and Texas have the most power.

That’s according to a survey of resale real estate agents in July 2024 by John Burns Research and Consulting.

The median down payment for US homebuyers has moved up to a record $67,500. That's 116% higher than the median down payment 5 years ago ($31,250).

The unhealthy U.S. housing market, as told by one chart

• High down payments ✅

• High monthly payments ✅ 

• Even 1981, when mortgage rates topped 18%, didn’t have both

Scores of people are moving to the parts of America endangered by wildfires, flooding and extreme heat, even as those dangers become more frequent and intense.

America’s high-fire-risk counties saw 63,365 more people move in than out in 2023. Much of that net inflow was people moving to Texas. But the story differs from state to state; among California’s high-fire-risk areas, more people left than moved in. That marks a reversal from 2022, indicating that people may be growing more responsive to fire risk in the Golden State.

The nation’s high-flood-risk counties saw 16,144 more people move in than out. Florida drove a large share of the migration to high-flood-risk counties, but a smaller share than it did in 2022, indicating that people may be growing more responsive to flood risk in the Sunshine State.

Pending starter home sales grew 10% in July year over year, while other price brackets fell.

The median price for a U.S. starter home climbed to $250,000 in July, but price growth was slower than for other price brackets.

Starter homebuyers are moving off the sidelines as mortgage rates fall and inventory rises.

Pending sales of starter homes climbed 10.2% year over year in July to the highest level since October 2022, showing there may be signs of life for first time homebuyers at the lower end of an otherwise sluggish market.

New U.S. Homes Are Now Cheaper by the Foot Than Existing Ones

• New homes sold for $3.50 less per foot than existing homes in May, the largest discount in at least six years.

• San Diego, Salt Lake City, and Los Angeles offer the biggest discount for new builds.

• Not needing updates or repairs was the top reason for choosing a new home, buyers say.

• Lot sizes and square footage for new homes have fallen significantly over the past six years.

• New construction homes commanded a serious premium before the pandemic – from $15 to $22 more per foot than existing homes – but they now represent a relative value. Buyers of new homes got a $3.50 discount per square foot in May compared to those purchasing existing homes. That’s the biggest discount in Zillow median sale price data that stretches back to 2018.